Decision Making in the Wilderness
“It’s not what a man doesn’t know that makes him a fool. It’s what he knows for sure that ain’t so,” is one of the more famous quotes from Josh Billings, a humorist and semi-contemporary of Mark Twain. I love this quote for its folksy pointedness. It’s one of my favorites because it uses humor to point at bias and ignorance.
We’re all subject to bias and, of course, bias is inherent in our thought processes. How we humans think has been the root of philosophical argument since the time of Plato. Stay with me now. I promise to leave behind Plato and his allegory of the cave, but his allegory teaches a lesson that can be meaningful, fun and informative.
Understanding your own cave shadow interpretation of the world can help you be a smarter, more thoughtful and better person. So, how can we understand these biases and their impact on our thoughts and decisions? And, is there something we can learn that will improve decision-making not only in our every day lives but also during backcountry adventures?
My son, Jack, gave me fascinating book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, your typical best-selling book by a Nobel Laureate in Economics, Daniel Kahneman. A trained psychologist whose book describes the ingenious experiments (and their results) he and his research partner, Amos Tversky, performed in the 1970’s and 80’s.
Full of penetrating discoveries and interesting challenges, the book is, for the most part, an easy read. Kahneman has a friendly writing style that engages the reader in a way that makes the material digestible yet not condescending.
Cognitive bias is most likely at the root of many of our relationship disagreements and misunderstandings. These unconscious reasoning errors, or biases, distort our view of the world and lead us to follow our intuition rather than consider the facts. And our intuition can be like a drunken friend, emotionally comforting but not highly reliable.
One of the key ideas the book offers is that we tend to allow our fast thought processes to convince us that “what you see is all there is” (WYSIATI) in the words of Kahneman. We have a tendency to find reasons or causes to believe only what is in front of us and not seek other information. Additionally, we often disregard the actual problem presented to us and, instead, substitute an easier and more familiar concept. These two tendencies often lead us down the wrong path.
A famous German substitution and priming experiment provides an example of how simple questions can lead us off our path. If, for instance, you are asked, “How happy are you these days?” your answer would not necessarily be correlated with the follow up question “How many dates did you have last month?” But these two questions can become related when asked in reverse. How you feel about your current social interactions (such as the number of dates) becomes a primer for your response to the question of overall happiness.
When presented with a more difficult target question like “how happy are you?”, we are likely to replace it with a heuristic question “Did you see your friends last weekend?”. A heuristic is a simple procedure that helps find an adequate, but often imperfect, answer to a more difficult question. Interestingly, the word heuristic has the same root as the word eureka. We use heuristics all day, every day, and are barely aware of it.
“Measure twice, cut once.” “Lefty loosey righty tighty." “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” These every-day heuristics are effective. Our tendency is to find the easiest path to a solution. If a problem is more difficult we happily satisfy ourselves with a simpler and faster solution by use of a heuristic. Eureka!
WHAT ARE FAST AND SLOW THINKING
Kahneman describes our two thinking speeds as Systems 1 and 2. Our life experiences, he contends, develops a lens through which we interpret our world - the faster System 1. System 1 is our automatic evaluator, the keeper of our heuristics. Availability is key to understanding much of our System 1 decision-making. Remember - WYSIATI.
All too often, I will reflect on an interaction, especially one with my wife, Margie, and feel I could have provided a better response, one that more accurately reflected my thoughts and understanding. I mull it over and develop a more appropriate System 2 response. Margie, as you might guess, prefers a more thoughtful response.
System 1 runs automatically and can be insensitive to both the quality and quantity of information received. It performs multiple computations at once and may not distinguish the importance nor complexity of a problem. It is gullible and biased TO BELIEVE.
System 2, on the other hand, is in charge of doubt and disbelief, the conscious, reasoning self that makes choices and decides what to think about what. It routinely receives System 1 interpretations of events and determines if additional thinking should be performed. However, System 2 is normally in a relaxed mode, allowing System 1 to expend all the energy. And when System 2 is engaged it will tire quickly and likely perform less efficiently on another task.
Typical System 1 operations:
Detect that one mountain peak is more distant than another
Orient to the source of a sudden sound
Complete the phrase “bread and …”
Detect hostility in a voice
Answer to 2 + 2 = ?
Read words on a large billboard
Drive a car on an empty road or walk on a wide path
Typical System 2 operations:
Bracing for a starter gun in a race
Focus on clowns in a circus act
Look for a group of climbers on a mountain
Maintain a faster hiking pace than is normal
Search memory to identify a bird sounds
Count the occurrence of the letter “a” on a page of text
Hike along a narrow ledge
Monitor the appropriateness of your behavior in a social situation.
Self-criticism is also a function of System 2 but, unfortunately, it is more often an apologist for the emotions of System 1 rather than a critic of those emotions.
System 1, as Kahneman says, is the fast auto-processor that confirms our perceived understanding. It understands sentences by trying to make them true. That’s right, your System 1 strives to believe things it sees and hears by using available heuristics over the facts and figures that may point to a different conclusion. It often does this through substitution, anchoring or representative processes.
Inputs and messages you surround yourself with will, over time, prime your System 1 to adopt those messages as your worldview. You are what you eat, hear and see. WYSIATI!
“Cognitive ease” is one of the keys to System 1 decision-making. Simply put, bold words, simple language and rhyming are all easier to read and understand and thus believe. But if you want to encourage System 2 thinking, you might create more cognitive strain for the reader. A smaller, fuzzier font, or the use of difficult words can create strain. This strain can result in an engaged System 2, with the reader or listener becoming more critical but may result in making your message more difficult to convey.
System 2 is a hands-off boss, and who doesn't like that? The down side is that if System 2 is comfortable with a System 1 response, it will not challenge the outcome or attempt to engage. That’s a shame. System 1 suppresses ambiguity and constructs stories as coherent as possible, even jump to conclusions when safe. System 1 sets our expectations and System 2, when engaged, readjusts System 1. We would be wise to engage System 2 more often than we do.
An over-reliance on our System 1’s intuitive and emotional decision-making process is great for self-preservation, as you might imagine. Think fight or flight. It serves its purpose when we confront an obviously angry person (or bear) or when a child darts out in front of our moving car, or you hear someone yell, “Rock!” while climbing at your local crag. We don’t have to think about a reaction, but this automatic response can be a disadvantage for developing responses to situations that might best be given some deeper and more critical evaluation. Like when your team is confronted with, “Where should we cross this river?”
Some typical heuristics that may result in sub-optimal decision-making are: a reliance on small numbers (or sample size) and anecdotal evidence, anchoring at the onset of a problem or negotiation, and availability which is also known as fluency or cognitive ease. Each of these topics receives a chapter’s worth of attention in Kahneman’s book and I would recommend you read it for a fuller appreciation.
The basic problem for humans running through all these heuristics is that System 1 is “strongly biased toward causal explanations and doesn’t deal well with mere statistics” according to Kahneman. We tend to see causes where they may not exist or at least may not have as strong an impact on the outcome as our System 1 would lead us to believe.
Priming isn’t actually an heuristic but it is a big player in decision-making. The impact of priming is strong but often imperceptible to us. Simply put, our behavior is dependent on the words and images we have in our mind. For instance, Kahneman’s research indicates that you are likely to walk more slowly than is typical if you have been primed with words such as: wrinkle, bald, forgetful, gray and Florida. You are what you see, hear and feel.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR ADVENTURERS?
The implications for wilderness adventures, both positive and negative, are tremendous. In learning about and attempting to overcome bias, two questions come to mind: “How can we best rely on appropriate heuristics and other decision-making tools?” and, “When and how should we engage our System 2 process?”
It is imperative in the outdoors that we continually rely on our System 2 thinking, remaining aware and watchful for those circumstances that create potential hazards. Enjoyment and relaxation are our goals in the outback, but we should always be collecting data about the risks presented by the weather and other natural resources such as rivers, terrain and wildlife. Enjoy the beautiful sunset but don’t ignore the fresh bear scat.
Reliable wilderness heuristics have been developed for most outdoor activities, and no doubt these rules of thumb save many lives every day when adopted and appropriately applied. Climbers are familiar with the acronyms ERNEST and SERENE for building solid anchors. SERENE anchors are Strong, Equalized, Redundant, Efficient, and have No Extension. Build a SERENE anchor and your group will likely be very safe.
First responders recognize FAST as a way to assess a potential stroke victim whose Face may droop, Arms may be weakened, Speech slurred and will note the Time the signals were first observed.
The proper use of bear spray in the Rocky Mountains and Alaska utilizes the SPRAY method of: Stand your ground, Pull the bear spray, Round up your group, Act human and Yield to the bear if it doesn’t leave.
These heuristics work for specific activities and should be one of your first lessons when you decide to begin participating in a new outdoor activity. There are heuristics to avoid avalanches, cross rivers, take cover from lightening and just about any other risky activity. These heuristics are designed to engage your System 2 and remind you of the important steps in each scenario.
An over reliance on heuristics can lead us to fall into the familiarity trap of believing the situation is safe and controllable when in fact every scenario is unique and should be treated that way. The acceptance trap can lead to decisions that will receive group approval but may be suboptimal.
Don’t allow peer pressure to dictate decisions that may lead you to cross a river because others before you have done so successfully, when in fact the river is different from hour to hour and minute to minute.
Many wilderness scenarios won’t require an immediate response and an heuristic may or may not apply perfectly. In these cases, a more deliberate analytical approach is often necessary. This works well with the less experienced participant and will allow for personal heuristics to be developed via the use of System 2 thinking. It also provides a great learning opportunity.
Experts, too, can make poor decisions when they are overconfident and utilize expertise that may not be appropriate for the situation. Knowledge of weather patterns in the Cascades may prove less useful when traveling in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Whitewater kayaking guides may not fully understand the risk associated with coastal glacier paddling.
But how do we ensure we are making the best decisions? It is important to avoid errors that may prove costly or life-threatening, and there are a few things we can do to improve our System 2 thought-process. One of the most important things we can do is to seek feedback and take the time to digest messages from our adventure partners. Look for others to provide System 2 engagement and encourage their cautious and reasoned approach.
THINK SLOWER TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS
To improve System 2 availability, get more sleep, drink less alcohol and more water. Better yet, drink a sugary drink - your brain loves sugar. Talk in your group, invite criticism, share information and ask questions, and don’t assume the leader’s System 2 process is engaged.
We can apply the time tested adventure heuristics; they will serve us well. But we should always engage our critical information gathering and monitoring process for each scenario. Kahneman suggests we might squint a little (but don’t intentionally look silly or mad), frown when we see or hear something new (but don’t be dismissive), question the decisions but in a way that is inclusive and respectful. Always tend to our team’s cohesion.
Your leader is looking for active followership; your group depends on everyone’s input. Adventure success requires that you are open to information and willing to learn new things. Be an active participant and volunteer your expertise and knowledge appropriately. Be open to the possibility of your own misunderstanding. It’s not what you don’t know, it’s what your System 1 knows for sure that ain’t so.
As Inigo Montoya in The Princess Bride said, “You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.” He was asking you to engage your System 2.
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